#041: Myspace. Vine. Twitter? Who Will Win the Microblogging War?
“When’s the best time to plant a tree? 20 years ago. When’s the second best time to plant a tree? Today” — Chinese Proverb
Myspace. Vine. Twitter? In the rapidly evolving landscape of social media, platforms are constantly vying for users' attention and engagement. The most recent contender to challenge the established order is Threads, the new social media platform introduced by Facebook's parent company, Meta. Threads is a micro-blogging platform that is a direct competitor and a very similar product to Twitter. Threads isn’t the first app to enter the microblogging space to vie for a Twitter takeover… or to at least eat into their market share. Twitter’s original founder Jack Dorsey created Bluesky and Mastodon are other microblogging app’s that have very similar features. However, Bluesky doesn’t have the user base on the platform yet, making it feel like a deserted island, and Mastodon is plagued with poor search-ability, no moderation and is incredibly slow. So Threads may be the first significant threat in Twitter’s 17-year history due to:
1) Threads launched on July 5th, 2023. As of today (July 13th) there are already over 110 million users that have signed up and created accounts on the platform. This astonishing growth allows them to prevent the slow growth and lack of users that Bluesky experiences.
2) Threads is owned and operated by Meta, the largest social media company in the world. Meta also has the most users and market cap of any standalone social media company (with over 3 billions Facebook users and over 2 billion WhatsApp & Instagram users). This will ensure that they don’t have the server and operating issues that Mastodon faces.
3) With already 2 billions+ Instagram users, Meta launched Threads with a function to automatically carryover your Instagram profile image, biography and all followers into the newly created Threads account — with that process taking no more than 1-2 minutes. Having connections to people that users already like and follow upon the first use of the app increases engagement and the likelihood that users will start spending time on the app right away.
4) The general public seems to be hitting a peak in 2023 with their frustration with Twitter. Between the algorithmic changes that have occurred in recent years, the purchase of Twitter by Elon Musk (with many massive mistakes that took place after the acquisition) and too much moderation and censorship on platform, the excitement that once existed with Twitter has waned for many. And a large majority who feel that way are Twitter’s most loyal users only a few years ago. So a key factor in the demise of Twitter will be how many of these disaffected Twitter users will make the jump over to Threads.
5) Meta already has relationships through their Facebook and Instagram teams to all of the top global influencers, the music industry/entertainment and beyond. They also have the money to go poach and get some of Twitter’s most popular users to transition and go exclusive on Threads. They also have the platform in place to easily monetize Threads through their Facebook Ads Manager platform.
Taking down a market leader in any category is always difficult and that will still be the case here. Threads has certain challenges that haven’t been fully realized yet. One is a branding challenge since nearly everyone is familiar with the brand Twitter and Threads is still only one week old. Another challenge is that Twitter still has over 450 million users — 340 million more users than Threads as of today — and no clarity on how large the Threads user base will grow to. And lastly, the differences between Instagram and Threads in terms of their core function. Someone who follows models, travel blogs etc on Instagram for their visual beauty will likely now auto-follow those same users on Threads. But instead of photo and videos being presented to them, it will be their inner thoughts and feelings. Is that something that will be appealing? Twitter’s follower growth all took place on the same platform, so it is better positioned to present information from people that you want to see.
Meta is notorious for their lack of internal innovation and development projects, aside from the first product that they launched — Facebook. Their other massive successes have come from companies that they acquired, including Instagram and WhatsApp. However, Meta feels poised to be on a path to slowly — or not so slowly — takeover Twitter’s market share and they have the resources to do it. And seeing Twitter’s reaction of threatening to sue Meta on July 6th, one day after the launch of Threads, shows that they are feeling the pressure. Pressure makes diamonds. But it also busts pipes. For Elon and team, which one will it be?
